Part 3: Financial info on the 19 films

Local distributors and international sales agents make a judgement about how much sales revenue a film is going to make before it goes into production and are expected to provide what’s known as a minimum guarantee (MG) or advance against that guestimate, which is then cash flowed into the budget. The bigger the MG, the more confidence there is about a film’s financial potential.

Fifteen of the 19 films had Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) MGs. Range: $20,000 – $500,000. Average: $225,000. Median: $250,000. (Another film had an MG covering the world including ANZ.)
Thirteen of the 19 films had rest of world (ROW) MGs. Range: $25,000 – $1.38 million. Average: $620,000. Median: $100,000. (This includes the film with the worldwide MG.)
Only one film had neither an ANZ, a ROW nor a worldwide MG.

For more information and data on ROW MGs on films supported by Screen Australia go here.

PRESALES, SALES ESTIMATES AND POST-FINANCING SALES

Generally, Screen Australia only tracks the sales performance of films it has invested in. Only 11 of the 2014/15 crop are included in the data below because eight received grants.

The figures for sales made after a film’s budget was locked down – hence the term post-financing sales – are as of 1 February 2018. They represent a moment in time because films attract revenue over many years.

PRESALES: Five of the 11 films secured presales before cameras rolled. Presale revenue range: $53,000 – $2.72 million. Average: about $1 million. Median: about $400,000.
SALES ESTIMATES: These were available on eight of the 11 films. Range of estimates: $460,000 – $5.8 million. Average: $2.75 million. Median: $1.8 million. Of these eight films: one had earned no money from ROW post financing sales; one had taken more than double its estimate; and the other six had earned revenue of 7-40% of their estimates, with the average being 26%.
ANZ POST-FINANCING SALES: Five of the 11 films have so far attracted these. Revenue range: $38,000 – $230,000. Average: about $110,000. Median: $93,000. Number of sales deals per film: one to five.
ROW POST-FINANCING SALES: Ten of the 11 films have so far attracted these. Revenue range: about $100,000 to nearly $3 million. Average: about $1 million. Median: $790,000. Number of sales deals per film: two to 21.
RECOUPMENT: Four of the 11 films have recouped some of their budget. (A big slice of theatrical revenue goes to exhibitors, MGs have to be refunded and distribution and other costs have to be repaid before money is returned to investors.)

Thanks to Screen Australia’s Rakel Tansley for the number crunching.